Community App Monthly Report

Friday, May 17, 2019

Bastien Muster
Quantitative Crypto Analyst

Snapshot of the month

More than 14’000 players have already joined our Community App Bitcoin Forecast Competition and there are more exciting times ahead! After a month and a half, we are pleased to announce that the first players are entering the Community app Hall-of-Fame, having won all of the other badges. More than 75% of you have already won at least 1 badge.

In addition to sharing key statistics and providing a zoom on the performance of specific types of players, we will give you, every month, an update on your chances of receiving rewards. We pay special attention to ensure that new players are rewarded if they are good forecasters.

Every month, you will also find an interview with one of our players along with a useful tip to help you improve your forecasts.

Country Breakdown

The players of the Community App are spread all over the world! The concentration of forecasters is the highest in Europe, but more and more of you are joining us across the Atlantic and in Asia. The swarm of forecasters is destined to be global.

Competition Chance Benchmarking

We are very attentive to the points system put in place. Indeed, we want this game to be meritocratic, fair and that newcomers always have a chance to win! That is why we have built a benchmark to identify if the point system needs to be adjusted or not.

Our benchmark is the following:

In the next two months, at any time, a player who starts the game must have at least a 50% chance of being in the top 10,000.

If this is not the case, we will adjust the points to return to this probability.

With the data recorded up to today, we can predict what is likely to happen and compare it with our simulations.

As shown in the figure below, today, you have more than:

  • 80% chance of being in the top 10’000
  • 18% chance of being in the top 1’000
  • 2% chance of being in the top 100

So, if you download the application now, you still have a good probability of being among the best players! For the others, continue to make good forecasts and invite your friends, and you will be rewarded!

Community Analysis

Congratulations, you are a very accurate community that, on average, knows how to manage its risk! Here are the three best players among you in terms of accuracy (with at least 20 forecasts) and risk management:


Accuracy

In terms of accuracy, the top 100 have bet more than 80% of the time up. With the following accuracies:

  • Bitcoin will go “Up”: 76%
  • Bitcoin will go “Down”: 61%

These numbers make sense when looking at the bullish market we went through this last month. However, it is possible to accurately predict downward movements. A dozen of users in the top 100 have an up-down ratio that is less than 60% and managed to have high accuracy when bitcoin went down. The best of them end with an accuracy of 68% with 64% on downs.


It appeared that most of its down forecasts were made when the price was approaching key levels, called resistances. At a resistance or a support level, it is likely that the price movement will slow down or rebound if the buy/sell pressure is not strong enough. These levels are often psychological levels where there has been a lot of trading volume in the past. You can find these levels in the “Daily Bitcoin Analysis”.



Accuracy: unlucky players

Some players have been very unlucky; we find players with an accuracy of less than 20% (with a number of forecasts greater than 20). Statistically speaking, for users who play randomly, we expect to have less than 0.2% of the players to be so unfortunate.

Tip: Don't flip a coin, check out our market tab and the Daily Bitcoin Analysis and persevere, your results will improve!

Risk Management

Risk management over time, in other words, the points earned with forecasts only, are presented below for the entire community with our 3 best risk managers highlighted as well as our CyBorg predictor which is beaten by only 0.05% of the players.


It should be noted that even though some players reach a very high accuracy, it doesn’t mean those users have the highest score. Most of them tend to invest fewer points in their bets.

However, some players reached a very high score with accuracies ranging only from 58% to 80% compared to 80% to 90% for the best accuracy. As discussed in our “What is the CyBorg Predictor?”, a good risk manager is not the one who is most often correct about the direction of the price change, but the player who can identify when he/she can afford to take more risk.

It makes more sense to bet fewer points or wait when bitcoin is traded sideways and risk more when the trend is clearer.  Using this strategy as well as machine learning the CyBorg to beat more than 99% of the users.

Tip: Consult the market tab and read the “Daily Bitcoin Analysis” in the Learn tab for more information related to the current market conditions and improve your forecasts!

Tip of the month: Community Trend

In the “Daily Bitcoin Analysis” published every day in the “Learn” tab. You can find the “Community Trend” indicator.

This indicator allows you to know if the majority of the community voted more "up" (Bullish) or "down" (Bearish) in the last 24 hours. In addition, the percentage gives you the strength of the imbalance between “up” and “down” votes. For example, 80% shows a clear trend, while 50% indicates that the community is uncertain.

You can use this information, in addition to the other indicators in two ways: you can follow the community hoping that the forecasts are accurate (accuracy that you also find in the Daily Bitcoin Analysis) or, as a contrarian, you bet on the fact that you will beat the majority of the community that is probably wrong at the time of the forecast.

Sentiment since the beginning

Since the launch of the Community App, the Community Trend has been constantly bullish. Below, the comparison between this indicator and the bitcoin price is presented for the past two months.

Three key moments can be highlighted:

  1. at the beginning of the game, you were very bullish before the price recovered.
  2. after the two negative announcements (Tether/Bitfinex allegations and the Binance hack), you were extremely bullish and confident. The market proved you right: it showed signs of strength and then exploded.
  3. since the parabolic rise of bitcoin, the Community Trend has been following the price increase. In the same way as the google trends on “bitcoin” recently.

When the trend becomes bearish, it will be interesting to see how well our Community is able to predict these changes.


Interview of the month

This month, we are pleased to present Pierre Fayet. One of our most committed players. The Community App allowed him to learn how to follow the evolution of the Bitcoin price. In particular, he became passionate about technical analysis by consulting our Daily Bitcoin Analysis.

Here is his player profile:


Communication

Ranking update

To limit the number of ties in the ranking, we have updated the way we calculate the ranking. In case of a tie, we take into account the number of forecasts made and the date of your first activity.

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